Pepper price tends to increase again until the end of this year and next year because output has sharply dropped.

Covid-19 Affects

According to Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice Chairman of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai), due to the Covid-19 epidemic, the world economy faced many difficulties, thus affecting and reducing the consumption of pepper. On the other hand, the epidemic disrupted the circulation of goods between Vietnam and other countries, causing the freight rates for shipping to Middle East countries, Europe, and America increases too high, 6-10 times higher than before.

Many businesses signed up for pre-sale at a low price of VND 40,000 – 55,000/kg. Now, they have to buy over VND 70,000/kg for contract delivery, so they suffer heavy losses. Businesses, not suffering losses, had taken advantage of purchasing goods and filling up their warehouses when prices were still low. Therefore, currently, the cash flow is severely stagnated. That has led to a recent decline in pepper prices. Some agencies have taken profits or borrowed hot money, so they have to sell quickly; many farmers at the end of the crop also need to sell some for necessary expenses. Therefore, pepper prices will not be high for a short while.

The rise of  Vietnam Pepper price

However, despite the ups and downs in price during this time, pepper is generally still in an uptrend. The main reason is still the balance of supply and demand.

In a recent news release, the International Pepper Community lowered their forecast for Vietnam’s pepper production volume in the 2021 harvest to 180,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from the previous estimates and 60,000 tons lower than the 2020 production volume.

But according to the estimation of Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, who has surveyed most of the critical pepper growing areas, the actual output in 2021 is only about 150,000 tons. Because in the past few years, pepper price is already meager. The more they invest in pepper gardens, the more they lose, so the pepper garden owners have neglected to take care of them; stop supporting them; so many pepper gardens have been completely abandoned. By 2021, it is estimated that the harvested area will be less than half of the 2017 area (153,000 hectares). Moreover, adverse weather causes the trees to bear little fruit, and thus the yield is drastically reduced. With the two factors above, it is estimated that pepper production in 2021 will decrease by over 30% compared to 2020.

Supply source decrease

Due to a sharp decrease in supply, the amount of pepper exported this year will also decrease significantly. According to the government, pepper exports reached more than 121 thousand tons in the first five months of 2021. Experts believe that the export volume of pepper this year is likely around 200,000 tons, much lower than last year.

Because of the sharp decrease in supply, pepper prices will gradually improve and reach VND 90,000 – 100,000/kg.

Source: Nongnghiep.vn

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