According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, if the export price of coffee remains at a high level, as in the first half of the year, the whole year 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports can set a record turnover of 4 billion. USD.
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) quoted statistics from the General Department of Customs saying that, in the first seven months of 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 1.13 million tons, worth 2.56 billion USD. Up 17.3% in volume and 43.6% in value over the same period in 2021. The average export price of Vietnam’s coffee reached $2,261/ton, up 22.5% over the same period last year. 2021.
Vietnam’s coffee exports forecast
Coffee is one of the 13 essential agricultural products of Vietnam. The coffee industry contributes 3% of the country’s GDP, creating jobs and stable incomes for over 600,000 farming households. However, coffee exports in July 2022 reached 125,000 tons, worth 284 million USD, down 9% in volume and 9.9% in value compared to the previous month. The average export price of coffee in July 2022 is estimated at US$2,272/ton, down 1% compared to June 2022.
Coffee exports to most markets increased, except exports to the United States, the Philippines, and Algeria decreased. Coffee exports to Belgium and the UK grew by three digits; Exports to Spain and Russia increased by double digits.
Vietnam’s coffee exports difficulty.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam’s coffee exports in the last months of the year will face difficulties due to China’s “zero COVID” policy. In addition, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe led to high inflation, weak consumer demand and low coffee prices.
Besides, coffee output in 2022 will be lower than in 2021 due to low productivity. Coffee production in the coffee year 2021/2022 reached 1.5 million tons (more than 95% of production is Robusta coffee), lower than 1.62 million tons in the coffee year 2020/2021.
In the third quarter of 2022, Vietnam still has about 500,000 tons of coffee to export. It is forecast that Vietnam’s coffee exports will face many difficulties. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not end soon, coffee prices will remain low in the remaining months of the third quarter of 2022.
Decrease in quantity, increase in quality.
According to Vicofa, in the first seven months of the year, the export turnover of instant and processed coffee products reached about 345 million USD, accounting for 14-15% of the total coffee export turnover. The increase in export enterprises of deep-processed coffee products is also helping Vietnam’s export turnover to prosper.
On the other hand, the export proportion of processed coffee products is increasing significantly, which proves that Vietnamese enterprises no longer focus too much on quantity but rather on quality and added value.
An exporter said that the coffee industry in 2022 will grow by 30-40% because the world is adapting to COVID-19. The demand is excellent while the supply is decreasing. The export price of coffee may reach $2,400-2,600 per tonne in 2022, and the upward momentum may last into 2023.
Commenting on coffee export turnover for the whole year, Vicofa said that if the export price of coffee remains as high as in the first half of the year, the entire year 2022, Vietnam’s coffee industry can still set a milestone of 4 billion USD.
Check out our Vietnam Arabica coffee bean here